Real Profit Forecaster
Enter your budget and unit economics. We'll forecast your real profit, margins, and lifetime value before you spend a dollar.
Step 1
Let's get started
What's your advertising goal?
We'll load real benchmark data for your industry and build a custom forecast.
Industry Benchmarks Loaded: Sporting Goods & Outdoor
Benchmarks modeled from Ad Prophet's proprietary analysis of Google Ads performance data across managed accounts and industry research.
How do you forecast return on ad spend and profit?
Forecast ROAS by estimating clicks, conversion rate, and average order value from your budget, then dividing projected revenue by ad spend. Layer in gross margin to forecast real profit, and add repeat purchase behavior to project lifetime value for each monthly cohort. This turns a budget into a profit forecast before you spend a dollar.
Ad Prophet users forecast an average 4.2x profit multiplier once lifetime value is included, well above the revenue-only ROAS most dashboards report.
The formula
Clicks
Budget / Cost per Click
Conversions
Clicks x Conversion Rate
Revenue
Conversions x Avg Order Value
ROAS
Revenue / Ad Spend
Gross Profit
Revenue x Gross Margin %
Worked example
- Monthly budget
- $40,000
- Cost per click
- $4
- Conversion rate
- 4%
- Avg order value
- $120
About 10,000 clicks produce roughly 400 conversions at $120, or $48,000 in revenue on $40,000 spend, a 1.2x ROAS before lifetime value. Adding repeat purchases can lift the true return well above the first-order ROAS.
Typical Google Ads starting benchmarks
| Metric | Branded search | Non-branded search |
|---|---|---|
| Click-through rate | 8% to 15% | 2% to 6% |
| Conversion rate | 10% to 25% | 2% to 8% |
| Relative cost per click | Lower | Higher |
Directional starting points only. Actual performance depends on vertical, geography, and account maturity.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good ROAS for Google Ads?
Breakeven ROAS depends on your margin, so there is no single good number. Calculate the ROAS you need to break even from your profit per customer, then treat anything above it as profit and factor in lifetime value from repeat purchases.
How do you forecast ROAS before spending?
Estimate clicks from budget and cost per click, apply your conversion rate to project conversions, multiply by average order value for revenue, then divide revenue by spend. This gives a forecast ROAS you can pressure-test before committing budget.
Why include LTV in an ad forecast?
First-order ROAS ignores repeat purchases. Including lifetime value shows the true return on acquisition and often reveals room to spend more, since Ad Prophet users forecast an average 4.2x profit multiplier once LTV is included.
How much budget do I need to forecast?
Any budget works. The forecaster scales clicks, conversions, revenue, and profit from the budget and unit economics you enter, so you can compare scenarios before deciding how much to spend.
Benchmarks and formulas last reviewed Q2 2026. Ad Prophet analyzes accounts spending $30K+/month on Google Ads.